general · 5 h ago
This directly prices whether the U.S. conducts a strike in Iran in 2026, matching the story’s claim about a U.S. military strike on Iran.
This asks about a U.S. invasion of Iran, which is related military escalation but materially different from a strike or attack claim.
Signing an agreement by June 30 is relevant to a possible U.S.-Iran de-escalation deal, but it is not the same as the story’s broader question of a deal or de-escalation in 2026.
This narrower June 22 agreement-signing market is relevant to diplomacy but does not directly price the article’s strike/attack claims.
A permanent peace deal would be a form of de-escalation, but the story’s claim is broader and not limited to a permanent peace agreement by this early deadline.
This is relevant peace-process context for 2026, but it is about a permanent peace deal rather than the broader de-escalation or strike claims in the story.
An agreement signed by July 31 is relevant context for a potential deal, but it does not directly price a military strike or Trump-ordered attack.
This permanent-peace-deal market is relevant de-escalation context, but it is not a direct price on the story’s specific strike or attack claims.
This is a broader 2026 peace-deal market and is relevant to de-escalation, but it does not directly price the story’s strike or attack claims.
This is relevant 2026 peace-deal context, but it is about a permanent peace deal rather than the broader de-escalation or military-action claims.
This is on the same strike-count ladder as the Iran strike claim, but only the exact-country market for Iran directly prices that claim.
This is on the same strike-count ladder as the Iran strike claim, but it is not the precise market for Iran specifically.
A U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21 is relevant de-escalation context, but it does not directly price whether the U.S. launches a strike or whether Trump orders one.
This is on the same strike-count ladder as the Iran strike claim, but it is not the precise market for Iran specifically.