Oil prices fall even as U.S. and Iran give conflicting accounts of draft deal

This directly prices whether a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is reached by June 30, which is the closest compatible deadline to the story’s draft-deal reporting.

This directly prices whether the U.S. and Iran reach a publicly announced nuclear deal by July 31, matching the story’s draft/final deal context.

This prices signing an agreement by June 30, but the story is about conflicting accounts of a draft deal rather than the act of signing.