How the Gulf will manage collective security after the Iran war ends
world · 2 h ago
An Iran-US deal could provide an opportunity for Gulfs to review their security arrangements.

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This directly prices whether the US and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026, which is the closest match to the story’s claim about an Iran-US deal being reached after the war ends.
Related markets
An Aug. 31 US-Iran peace deal is the same general event, but it is a later threshold than the story specifically implies and is less precise than the July market.