Iranian foreign minister says deal with U.S. "never been closer"

This directly prices whether a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is reached by June 30, which is the closest direct match to the story’s nuclear-deal claim.

This directly prices the story’s nuclear-deal claim by year-end 2026, matching the reported prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal.

A public U.S.-Iran written agreement by June 30 directly matches the story’s claim that a deal may be imminent, though it is narrower than a full nuclear deal and requires signing rather than merely an announcement.

Same U.S.-Iran agreement-signing ladder, but July 31 is a later cutoff than the story’s near-term talks and thus only contextual.